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After a decade of "ballot logjam," has voting for the National Baseball Hall of Fame finally returned to normal? We will know when results from the ballots cast by the qualified members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA, or "the writers") are announced on January 21, 2025, although based on voting trends over the last decade, the bulk of the results are predictable and, by now, unsurprising.
What does a "return to normal" mean? Of the 14 first-time candidates on the BBWAA 2025 ballot, only two, CC Sabathia and Ichiro Suzuki, stand out as likely Hall of Famers, and neither are a lock for first-ballot induction. Of the 14 returning candidates, none of the "normal" candidates are automatic Hall of Famers, else they would have been elected already. Thus, there is no "ballot logjam," meaning that there are not more than ten sure-fire Hall of Famers who exceed the maximum of ten votes allowed per ballot.
Of course, there are two ridiculously-qualified candidates who are ostensibly first-ballot locks, but PED Penitents Manny Ramirez and Álex Rodríguez are not "normal" because they epitomize the "predictable" and "unsurprising" voting trends of BBWAA voters, the majority of whom will not vote for players with performance-enhancing drug (PED) issues—and both Man-Ram and especially A-Rod are among the most egregious offenders despite posting stratospheric career numbers, admittedly inflated by PED usage, that otherwise scream Hall of Famer.
Manny won't be being Manny much longer: Manny Ramirez's chances for the Hall of Fame are as gone as that ball he just hit. Fellow PED Penitent Álex Rodríguez is in the same boat.
Speaking of cheaters, Carlos Beltrán, not an overwhelming first-ballot pick, is hoping that the third time will be a Cooperstown charm for him as he pays his penance for being the ringleader of the sign-stealing scandal that tarnished the Houston Astros' 2017 World Series championship. Meanwhile, Omar Vizquel, a borderline Hall of Famer, has seen what support he had crumble beginning in 2022 as allegations of domestic abuse and sexual harassment surfaced, causing voters to abandon him as if he had cooties.
Known or suspected PED usage is a contentious issue that I have repeatedly and vociferously challenged, and it is an issue that is not going away any time soon: Lots of luck, Robinson Canó, whenever you get onto your first BBWAA ballot. In a nutshell, I object to the punishment of players exclusively when not only did Major League Baseball ignore, then slow-walk, the PED issue because it rejuvenated baseball following the 1994 work stoppage, it rewarded the "PED enablers"—managers, executives, and particularly then-presiding commissioner of baseball Bud Selig, all of whom willingly turned a blind eye toward the PED influence on the game—with near-automatic Hall of Fame inductions.
But the PED issue happened during a player's career and affected his on-field performance. More disturbing is the increasingly censorious trend by BBWAA voters to blackball a candidate for his behavior off the field and after his playing career was over. In addition to Vizquel, Curt Schilling was blackballed for his toxic political views on social media, which won't prevent you from becoming president of the United States—quite the opposite—but it will keep you out of the Baseball Hall of Fame.
Moreover, the recent death of Pete Rose reminds us once more that baseball's all-time hit leader is not in the Hall of Fame, nor is its all-time home run leader or one of its all-time greatest pitchers (hint: third in strikeouts, ninth in wins, nicknamed "the Rocket").
In fact, the National Baseball Hall of Fame seems to have taken to heart Hall of Famer Joe Morgan's 2017 pearl-clutching plea to not vote for known or suspected PED users so that visits to Cooperstown will yield (paraphrasing) "a feel-good family experience" untainted by the presence of those who "cheated the game."
Thus the drive to make the Hall of Fame baseball's Disneyland is turning it into a Hall of Saints as voters increasingly judge a candidate's morality while assessing his baseball qualifications; that is, at least in part, enough to spur one qualified voter, noted sports writer Howard Bryant, to state that he began abstaining from the Hall of Fame voting process altogether five years ago in his reflection on Pete Rose, which notes the hypocrisy of continuing to ban Rose for his gambling on games now that baseball, like the rest of the Big Four North American team sports, heartily endorses legalized gambling.
This by no means condones Omar Vizquel's alleged behavior or legitimizes Curt Schilling's opinions, which are diametrically opposed to my own although I've maintained since 2011 that he is a no-doubt Hall of Famer. Moreover, it is not simply a matter of divorcing a candidate's playing career—which, presumably, is all that matters in terms of memorializing his accomplishments during that career—from his post-playing-career life. Domestic abuse, sexual harassment, prejudice, bigotry, inflammatory speech, and any other transgressions not listed here are not new.
How many of those already inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame are guilty of any of those transgressions that seem to obsess current voters? Should previous Hall of Famers be investigated to determine if they are guilty? If they are found liable or guilty, will the Hall take any action to remove or at least censure them for their transgressions? It all becomes a proverbial slippery slope, doesn't it? However, the Hall and its voters have already lifted the lid to Pandora's box, and now they have to deal with the consequences of their actions because it's too late to try to stuff them back into the box and close the lid.
All of which has made Hall of Fame voting increasingly complicated, which may be why Howard Bryant has decided to forego his opportunity to help decide which players might be inducted into the Hall of Fame. Fortunately, I will never become an actual Hall of Fame voter, so like many baseball fans I will fire in my shots from the cheap seats.
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