Safeties (12)
Steve Atwater (2020), Troy Polamalu (2020), Brian Dawkins (2021) & Leroy Butler (2022)
Modern Positional Average
Safeties: Steve Atwater (2020), Brian Dawkins (2018), John Lynch (2021), Troy Polamalu (2020),
Note that in 2019, all Defensive Backs were grouped together, and were Champ Bailey, Brian Dawkins, Ty Law, Ed Reed, and Aeneas Williams. Cornerbacks and Safeties were split in 2020 but kept at four in both categories to keep everything modern. With the addition of Lynch, we now have four modern Safeties, resulting in significant changes.
Here are the statistics that we are using based on the last group of Safeties to enter the Pro Football Hall of Fame:
- Games Played: 182.5
- Approximate Value: 100.3
- Approximate Value per Games Played: 0.6041
- Games Started: 166
- Approximate Value per Games Started: 0.6848
- Approximate Value per Five-Year Peak: 61
- Approximate Value’s Best Five Results: 65
- Pro Bowls: 7.3
- First Team All-Pros*: 3
- Interceptions: 30
- Interceptions Five-Year Peak: 15.5
- Combined Tackles: 913
- Combined Tackles Five-Year Peak: 465.8
- Super Bowl Wins: 1.3
- Super Bowl Appearances: 1.5
*This is an aggregate of the Top Five finishes (5th = 1, 4th = 2, 3rd = 3, 2nd = 4th, 1st = 5)
**This is a reminder that the All-Pros we use are from the AP.
Stats
- Games 182.5
- Approximate Value 110.3
- Approximate Value per Game 0.6041
- Games Started 166
- Approximate Value per Games Started 0.6848
- Approximate Value: Five-Year Peak 61
- Approximate Value: Best Five Years 65
- Pro Bowls 7.3
- First Team AP All-Pros 3
- Interceptions 30
- Interceptions Five-Year Peak 15.5
- Combined Tackles 913
- Combined Tackles Five-Year Peak 465.8
- Super Bowl Championships 1.3
- Super Bowl Appearances 1.5
#43 Overall, Budda Baker, Arizona Cardinals, Free Safety, #1 Safety
2023 Pre-Season Rank #78, 2022 Pre-Season Rank #86, 2021 Pre-Season Rank #!113, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #147. Peak Period: 2019-23
Baker is already a six-time Pro Bowl Selection and a two-time First Team All-Pro. He is a tackling machine who led the NFL in Solo Tackles in 2019. Although his AV/G is lower than the MPA, his stature among his peers is huge.
The bar for Safeties is high, and Baker (and his peers) have a lot of work to do to gain serious Hall of Fame consideration.
Stats
- Games 105 (-77.5)
- Approximate Value 57 (-53.3)
- Approximate Value per Game 0.5429 (-0.0612)
- Games Started 95 (-71)
- Approximate Value per Games Started 0.6000 (-0.0848)
- Approximate Value: Five-Year Peak 43 (-18)
- Approximate Value: Best Five Years 47 (-18)
- Pro Bowls 6 (-1.3)
- First Team AP All-Pros 2 (-1)
- Interceptions 7 (-23)
- Interceptions Five-Year Peak 7 (-8.5)
- Combined Tackles 737 (-176)
- Combined Tackles Five-Year Peak 560 (+94.2)
- Super Bowl Championships 0 (-1.3)
- Super Bowl Appearances 0 (-1.5)
#51 Overall, Harrison Smith, Minnesota Vikings, Strong Safety, #2 Safety
2023 Pre-Season Rank #72, 2022 Pre-Season Rank #79, 2021 Pre-Season Rank #90, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #72. Peak Period: 2015-19.
The five-year streak of Pro Bowls ended in 2020, but two seasons ago, Smith was back on the Pro Bowl roster, claiming number six. Smith is, however, not close to any of the MPAs and will need to keep up his current pace into his mid-30s. That isn’t impossible, but it is more likely that he will regress instead.
Stats
- Games 176 (-6.5)
- Approximate Value 84 (-26.3)
- Approximate Value per Game 0.4733 (-0.1308)
- Games Started 175 (+9)
- Approximate Value per Games Started 0.4800 (-0.2048)
- Approximate Value: Five-Year Peak 43 (-18)
- Approximate Value: Best Five Years 45 (-20)
- Pro Bowls 6 (-1.3)
- First Team AP All-Pros 1 (-2)
- Interceptions 34 (+4)
- Interceptions Five-Year Peak 13 (-2.5)
- Combined Tackles 1039 (+126)
- Combined Tackles Five-Year Peak 404 (-61.8)
- Super Bowl Championships 0 (-1.3)
- Super Bowl Appearances 0 (-1.5)
#56 Overall, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Pittsburgh Steelers, Free Safety, #3 Safety
2023 Pre-Season Rank #63, 2022 Pre-Season Rank #99, 2021 Pre-Season Rank #108, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #140. Peak Period 2019-23.
Minkah Fitzpatrick arguably had a down year in 2023, but he enters 2024 as one of the top Safeties in football.
The Steelers secondary is led by Fitzpatrick, who has arguably been the best Safety in football over the last five seasons. If he can replicate this over the next half-decade, Fitzpatrick will skyrocket his chances of being in the Hall of Fame.
Stats
- Games 89 (-93.5)
- Approximate Value 57 (-53.3)
- Approximate Value per Game 0.6404 (+0.0363)
- Games Started 84 (-82)
- Approximate Value per Games Started 0.6786 (-0.0062)
- Approximate Value: Five-Year Peak 53 (-8)
- Approximate Value: Best Five Years 53 (-12)
- Pro Bowls 5 (-2.3)
- First Team AP All-Pros 3
- Interceptions 19 (-11)
- Interceptions Five-Year Peak 17 (+1.5)
- Combined Tackles 512 (-401)
- Combined Tackles Five-Year Peak 432 (-33.8)
- Super Bowl Championships 0 (-1.3)
- Super Bowl Appearances 0 (-1.5)
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#60 Overall, Tyrann Mathieu, New Orleans Saints, Strong Safety, #4 Safety
2023 Pre-Season Rank #67, 2022 Pre-Season Rank #75, 2021 Pre-Season Rank #87, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #103. Peak Period: 2019-23
Mathieu is an intriguing case as he was a surprise All-Decade recipient, but when you gain that honor, you will be forever talked about regarding the Hall. Saying that, his AV/G is well below what a Hall of Famer should be and he has been a Pro Bowler only twice. He is now a three-time First Team All-Pro, a Super Bowl Champion, and has a star aura. This feels like a key year for the Honey Badger to see if there is any legitimate Hall of Fame chance.
Stats
- Games 163 (-19.5)
- Approximate Value 78 (-32.3)
- Approximate Value per Game 0.4758 (-0.1283)
- Games Started 154 (-12)
- Approximate Value per Games Started 0.5064 (-0.1784)
- Approximate Value: Five-Year Peak 43 (-18)
- Approximate Value: Best Five Years 48 (-17)
-
Top Five Aggregated DPOY Finishes
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0 - Pro Bowls 3 (-4.3)
- First Team AP All-Pros 3
- Interceptions 33 (+3)
- Interceptions Five-Year Peak 20 (+4.5)
- Combined Tackles 776 (-137)
- Combined Tackles Five-Year Peak 380 (-85.8)
- Super Bowl Championships 1 (-0.3)
- Super Bowl Appearances 2 (+0.5)
#77 Overall, Justin Simmons, Atlanta Falcons, Free Safety, #5 Safety
2022: Pre-Season Rank: #131. Peak Period: 2019-23
Justin Simmons joins the Atlanta Falcons after eight years in Denver, the last five of which saw him named to the Bowl and/or secure a Second Team All-Pro. The co-leader in Interceptions in 2022 (6) has 30 career picks going into this campaign.
Stats
- Games 118 (-64.5)
- Approximate Value 65 (-45.3)
- Approximate Value per Game 0.5505 (-0.0536)
- Games Started 108 (-58)
- Approximate Value per Games Started 0.6019 (-0.0829)
- Approximate Value: Five-Year Peak 49 (-12)
- Approximate Value: Best Five Years 49 (-16)
- Pro Bowls 2 (-5.3)
- First Team AP All-Pros 0 (-3)
- Interceptions 30
- Interceptions Five-Year Peak 23 (+7.5)
- Combined Tackles 604 (-309)
- Combined Tackles Five-Year Peak 408 (-57.8)
- Super Bowl Championships 0 (-1.3)
- Super Bowl Appearances 0 (-1.5)
#95 Overall, Jamal Adams, Tennessee Titans, Strong Safety, #6 Safety
2023 Pre-Season Rank #90, 2022 Pre-Season Rank #86, 2021 Pre-Season Rank #94, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #116. Peak Period: 2018-22
After three seasons, Janal Adams forced his way out of the New York Jets, and the Seattle Seahawks gave up many high picks to get him. After his third straight Pro Bowl season, Adams was not what Seattle had hoped for, and due to injury, he only played 10 Games over the last two years.
He joins Tennessee this year, hoping to return to the player who set the single-season record for Sacks for a Defensive Back, 9.5.
Stats
- Games 80 (-102.5)
- Approximate Value 47 (-63.3)
- Approximate Value per Game 0.5875 (-0.0166)
- Games Started 80 (-86)
- Approximate Value per Games Started 0.5875 (-0.0973)
- Approximate Value: Five-Year Peak 45 (-16)
- Approximate Value: Best Five Years 45 (-20)
- Pro Bowls 3 (-4.3)
- First Team AP All-Pros 1 (-2)
- Interceptions 4 (-26)
- Interceptions Five-Year Peak 4 (-11.5)
- Combined Tackles 494 (-419)
- Combined Tackles Five-Year Peak 433 (-32.8)
- Super Bowl Championships 0 (-1.3)
- Super Bowl Appearances 0 (-1.5)
#113 Overall, Kevin Byard, Chicago Bears, Strong Safety, #7 Safety
2023 Pre-Season Rank #125, 2022: Pre-Season Rank #135. Peak Period: 2017-21
A two-time First Team All-Pro as a Tennessee Titan, Kevin Byard seems to have an average or spectacular season. He begins 2024 with the Chicago Bears, with Byard having a lot of work to do to make a serious Hall of Fame case.
Stats
- Games 130 (-52.5)
- Approximate Value 62 (-48.3)
- Approximate Value per Game 0.4777 (-0.1264)
- Games Started 121 (-45)
- Approximate Value per Games Started 0.5124 (-0.1724)
- Approximate Value: Five-Year Peak 47 (-14)
- Approximate Value: Best Five Years 50 (-15)
- Pro Bowls 2 (-5.3)
- First Team AP All-Pros 2 (-1)
- Interceptions 28 (-2)
- Interceptions Five-Year Peak 23 (+7.5)
- Combined Tackles 749 (-164)
- Combined Tackles Five-Year Peak 460 (-5.8)
- Super Bowl Championships 0 (-1.3)
- Super Bowl Appearances 0 (-1.5)
#119 Overall, Eddie Jackson, Baltimore Ravens, Strong Safety, #8 Safety
2023 Pre-Season Rank #113, 2022 Pre-Season Rank #123, 2021 Pre-Season Rank #127, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #115. Peak Period 2017-21.
After seven seasons in Chicago, Jackson joins the Baltimore Ravens. The Strong Safety was a First Team All-Pro in 2018 and has been to two Pro Bowls. Jackson has not been the same player the last three seasons, but a change of scenery could put him back on course.
Stats
- Games 100 (-82.5)
- Approximate Value 50 (-60.3)
- Approximate Value per Game 0.5000 (-0.1041)
- Games Started 100 (-66)
- Approximate Value per Games Started 0.5000 (-0.1848)
- Approximate Value: Five-Year Peak 42 (-19)
- Approximate Value: Best Five Years 42 (-23)
- Pro Bowls 2 (-5.3)
- First Team AP All-Pros 1 (-2)
- Interceptions 15 (-15)
- Interceptions Five-Year Peak 10 (-5.5)
- Combined Tackles 449 (-464)
- Combined Tackles Five-Year Peak 342 (-123.8)
- Super Bowl Championships 0 (-1.3)
- Super Bowl Appearances 0 (-1.5)
#130 Overall, Derwin James, Los Angeles Chargers, Strong Safety, #9 Safety
2023: Pre-Season Rank: #136. Peak Period: 2018-23*
After a spectacular rookie year (2018) where he was the runner-up for the Defensive Rookie of the Year, James missed 11 Games in 2019 with a foot injury and the entirety of 2020 with a torn meniscus. James defied the odds, and the Safety had a two-year run in the Pro Bowls afterward. Can James make a run for the Hall despite his early injury bug?
*Missed the entire 2020 Season.
Stats
- Games 66 (-116.5)
- Approximate Value 31 (-79.3)
- Approximate Value per Game .4697 (-0.1344)
- Games Started 66 (-100)
- Approximate Value per Games Started 0.4697 (-0.2151)
- Approximate Value: Five-Year Peak 31 (-30)
- Approximate Value: Best Five Years 31 (-34)
- Pro Bowls 3 (-4.3)
- First Team AP All-Pros 1 (-2)
- Interceptions 8 (-22)
- Interceptions Five-Year Peak 8 (-7.5)
- Combined Tackles 497 (-416)
- Combined Tackles Five-Year Peak 497 (+31.2)
- Super Bowl Championships 0 (-1.3)
- Super Bowl Appearances 0 (-1.5)
#138 Overall, Antoine Winfield Jr., Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Strong Safety, #10 Safety
2023: Pre-Season Rank: Unranked. Peak Period 2020-23*
The first Tampa Bay Safety to make a First Team All-Pro since John Lynch, Antoine Winfield Jr. is one of the best pass-rushing Safeties in the NFL, has 15 career sacks and was the co-leader in Forced Fumbles last year (6).
*Winfield has only played four seasons.
Stats
- Games 59 (-123.5)
- Approximate Value 34 (-76.3)
- Approximate Value per Game 0.5762 (-0.0279)
- Games Started 66 (-100)
- Approximate Value per Games Started 0.5762 (-0.1086)
- Approximate Value: Five-Year Peak 34 (-27)
- Approximate Value: Best Five Years 34 (-31)
- Pro Bowls 1 (-6.3)
- First Team AP All-Pros 1 (-2)
- Interceptions 7 (-23)
- Interceptions Five-Year Peak 7 (-8.5)
- Combined Tackles 384 (-529)
- Combined Tackles Five-Year Peak 384 (-81.8)
- Super Bowl Championships 1 (-0.3)
- Super Bowl Appearances 1 (-0.5)
#150 Overall, Jessie Bates III, Atlanta Falcons, Free Safety, #11 Safety
2023: Pre-Season Rank: Unranked. Peak Period 2019-23
Jessie Bates secured his first Pro Bowl last season in what was his first year as an Atlanta Falcon. He is also a two-time Second Team All-Pro.
Stats
- Games 96 (-86.5)
- Approximate Value 47 (-63.3)
- Approximate Value per Game 0.4895 (-0.1146)
- Games Started 96 (-70)
- Approximate Value per Games Started 0.4895 (-0.1953)
- Approximate Value: Five-Year Peak 42 (-19)
- Approximate Value: Best Five Years 42 (-23)
- Pro Bowls 1 (-6.3)
- First Team AP All-Pros 0 (-3)
- Interceptions 20 (-10)
- Interceptions Five-Year Peak 17 (+1.5)
- Combined Tackles 611 (-302)
- Combined Tackles Five-Year Peak 500 (+34.2)
- Super Bowl Championships 0 (-1.3)
- Super Bowl Appearances 1 (-0.5)