IF I HAD A VOTE IN THE 2013 BASEBALL HALL OF FAME ELECTION, PART 2: THE EVALUATIONS

Category: DDT's Pop Flies Created on Wednesday, 02 January 2013 22:56 Written by Darryl Tahirali Hits: 1362

In Part 1 of this two-part series, we examined in detail the two salient qualities of the 2013 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot: It is a ballot overstuffed with not just candidates—37 players!—but with qualified candidates, and it is a referendum on performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs) because of the presence of the two most dominant players of the last 20 years: Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens.

Part 2 concentrates solely on the merits of all 37 players on the ballot. With respect to PEDs, they are part of the sometimes-tawdry, sometimes-laudatory history of baseball, and the witch-hunt mentality surrounding them has obscured the fact that no part of baseball history has ever been pure or pristine. In short, there is no stigma here regarding PEDs. They are a part of baseball history as much as institutional racism marked the game before 1947, as much as allegations of widespread amphetamine usage marked the game during the "Golden Era" of the 1950s and 1960s, and as much as Gaylord Perry marked his baseball before he threw it.

The bottom line is this: You evaluate the baseball you have, not the baseball you wish you had.

Candidates for the 2013 Hall of Fame Ballot

The following two tables list the 37 candidates on the 2013 ballot, first the 27 position players, and then the 10 pitchers. They are ranked by their career Wins Above Replacement from Baseball Reference (bWAR) along with other representative qualitative statistics (explained below each table).

Here are the 27 position players on the 2013 Hall of Fame ballot, ranked by bWAR.

Position Players on the 2013 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot, Ranked by bWAR
Position Player	Slash Line	bWAR	fWAR	OPS+	wRC+
Bonds, Barry	.298/.444/.607	158.1	168.0	182	172
Bagwell, Jeff	.297/.408/.540	76.7	83.9	149	149
Walker, Larry	.313/.400/.565	69.7	73.2	141	141
Trammell, Alan	.285/.352/.415	67.1	69.5	110	111
Raines, Tim	.294/.385/.425	66.2	70.6	123	126
Palmeiro, Rafael	.288/.371/.515	66.1	74.2	132	130
Lofton, Kenny	.299/.372/.423	64.9	66.2	107	110
Martinez, Edgar	.312/.418/.515	64.4	69.9	147	148
Biggio, Craig	.281/.363/.433	62.1	70.5	112	115
McGwire, Mark	.263/.394/.588	58.7	70.6	163	157
Piazza, Mike	.308/.377/.545	56.1	66.8	143	141
Sosa, Sammy	.273/.344/.534	54.8	64.1	128	123
McGriff, Fred	.284/.377/.509	48.2	61.0	134	134
Williams, Bernie	.297/.381/.477	45.9	47.5	125	126
Murphy, Dale	.265/.346/.469	42.6	47.3	121	120
Finley, Steve	.271/.332/.442	40.4	44.2	104	104
Mattingly, Don	.307/.358/.471	39.8	45.8	127	124
Franco, Julio	.298/.365/.417	39.7	48.6	111	112
Sanders, Reggie	.267/.343/.487	36.7	41.8	115	115
Cirillo, Jeff	.296/.366/.430	32.0	36.4	102	104
Green, Shawn	.283/.355/.494	31.4	34.9	120	118
White, Rondell	.284/.336/.462	25.5	26.2	108	108
Klesko, Ryan	.279/.370/.500	24.6	32.7	128	127
Clayton, Royce	.258/.312/.367	16.4	21.7	78	76
Conine, Jeff	.285/.347/.443	16.2	24.4	107	107
Alomar, Jr., Sandy	.273/.309/.406	11.6	15.7	86	85
Walker, Todd	.289/.348/.435	8.3	11.5	98	98

 

Slash Line: Grouping of the player's career batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.

bWAR: Career Wins Above Replacement as calculated by Baseball Reference.

fWAR: Career Wins Above Replacement as calculated by FanGraphs.

OPS+: Career on-base percentage plus slugging percentage, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by Baseball Reference. Positively indexed to 100, with a 100 OPS+ indicating a league-average player, and values above 100 indicating the degrees better a player is than a league-average player.

wRC+: Career weighted Runs Created, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by FanGraphs. Positively indexed to 100, with a 100 wRC+ indicating a league-average player, and values above 100 indicating the degrees better a player is than a league-average player.

 

Here are the 10 pitchers on the 2013 Hall of Fame ballot, ranked by bWAR.

Pitchers on the 2013 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot, Ranked by bWAR
Pitcher	W-L (S), ERA	bWAR	fWAR	ERA+	ERA-
Clemens, Roger	354-184, 3.12	133.1	145.5	143	70
Schilling, Curt	216-146, 3.46	76.9	86.1	127	80
Wells, David	239-157, 4.13	49.4	61.2	108	93
Morris, Jack	254-186, 3.90	39.3	56.9	105	95
Smith, Lee	71-92 (478), 3.03	27.9	29.0	132	73
Williams, Woody	132-116, 4.19	25.0	19.8	103	97
Sele, Aaron	148-112, 4.61	17.2	33.6	100	99
Hernandez, Roberto	67-71 (326), 3.45	17.2	15.2	131	77
Stanton, Mike	68-63 (84), 3.92	12.6	13.7	112	90
Mesa, Jose	80-109 (321), 4.36	9.5	13.5	100	100

 

W-L (S), ERA: Grouping of the pitcher's career win-loss record (and career saves, if applicable) and career earned run average (ERA).

bWAR: Career Wins Above Replacement as calculated by Baseball Reference.

fWAR: Career Wins Above Replacement as calculated by FanGraphs.

ERA+: Career ERA, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by Baseball Reference. Positively indexed to 100, with a 100 ERA+ indicating a league-average pitcher, and values above 100 indicating the degrees better a pitcher is than a league-average pitcher.

ERA-: Career ERA, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by FanGraphs. Negatively indexed to 100, with a 100 ERA- indicating a league-average pitcher, and values below 100 indicating the degrees better a pitcher is than a league-average pitcher.

 

The table below combines both position players and pitchers into a ranking by bWAR.

All 2013 Hall of Fame Candidates, Ranked by bWAR
Rank	Player	bWAR	fWAR
1	Bonds, Barry	158.1	168.0
2	Clemens, Roger	133.1	145.5
3	Schilling, Curt	76.9	86.1
4	Bagwell, Jeff	76.7	83.9
5	Walker, Larry	69.7	73.2
6	Trammell, Alan	67.1	69.5
7	Raines, Tim	66.2	70.6
8	Palmeiro, Rafael	66.1	74.2
9	Lofton, Kenny	64.9	66.2
10	Martinez, Edgar	64.4	69.9
11	Biggio, Craig	62.1	70.5
12	McGwire, Mark	58.7	70.6
13	Piazza, Mike	56.1	66.8
14	Sosa, Sammy	54.8	64.1
15	Wells, David	49.4	61.2
16	McGriff, Fred	48.2	61.0
17	Williams, Bernie	45.9	47.5
18	Murphy, Dale	42.6	47.3
19	Finley, Steve	40.4	44.2
20	Mattingly, Don	39.8	45.8
21	Franco, Julio	39.7	48.6
22	Morris, Jack	39.3	56.9
23	Sanders, Reggie	36.7	41.8
24	Cirillo, Jeff	32.0	36.4
25	Green, Shawn	31.4	34.9
26	Smith, Lee	27.9	29.0
27	White, Rondell	25.5	26.2
28	Williams, Woody	25.0	19.8
29	Klesko, Ryan	24.6	32.7
30	Sele, Aaron	17.2	33.6
31	Hernandez, Roberto	17.2	15.2
32	Clayton, Royce	16.4	21.7
33	Conine, Jeff	16.2	24.4
34	Stanton, Mike	12.6	13.7
35	Alomar, Jr., Sandy	11.6	15.7
36	Mesa, Jose	9.5	13.5
37	Walker, Todd	8.3	11.5